Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, Cardano, and Shiba Inu are currently grappling with short-term losses, but analysts suggest that a decisive move could be on the horizon.
Joao Wedson, a crypto analyst and Founder & CEO of Alphractal, believes the coming weeks may bring the final surge of the current cycle. He urges traders to remain cautious during this period. Wedson pointed out that most investors lose money by following hype instead of strategically positioning themselves during quieter phases of the market.
“The rule is clear: buy when no one wants it and sell when everyone is talking about it,” he wrote on X.
He also advised those holding losing positions to exit once prices recover to their average cost, leaving no more than 10% behind to minimize further risk.
### Debate Over Bitcoin’s Cycle Peak
Wedson weighed in on the ongoing debate about whether Bitcoin has outgrown its traditional four-year cycle. Some macro observers argue that global liquidity conditions could delay the next all-time high until 2026. However, on-chain data suggests a peak might be closer than expected.
The analyst highlighted the Max Intersect SMA Model, describing it as historically accurate in signaling cycle tops. As of September 14, the model stood around $58,170 and could trigger a peak once it crosses $69,000.
### Market Pressures and Positioning
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $119,888, up 2% on the day but nearly 6% lower over the week. The asset is up 69% year-on-year, boasting a market cap of $2.38 trillion. Trading volume has increased by 23% over the past 24 hours to $73.1 billion, indicating rising volatility.
Meanwhile, the overall cryptocurrency market gained 2.4% within 24 hours, with the Fear & Greed Index at 51, reflecting a neutral sentiment leaning towards fear.
Outflows from spot ETFs added further pressure on the market, with $258 million withdrawn in a single day—led primarily by Fidelity’s FBTC. Additionally, whales unloaded 115,000 BTC in August, marking the largest sell-off since 2022, which pushed prices below $109,000.
Analysts warn that resistance near $114,000 could spark further declines. Fortunately, ETF inflows and institutional buyers are helping to cushion some of the pressure as markets seek stability.
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Stay tuned for further updates as the crypto market navigates this critical phase.
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