If I have one major complaint about this season of Netflix’s *The Great British Baking Show*, it’s that the competition itself has been kind of blah. Ever since Episode 3, “Bread Week,” one baker has effortlessly dominated the rest of the field, taking home four Star Baker honors, multiple handshakes, and even a first place in the Technical. While I like this baker and their bakes, it’s beginning to feel like their eventual win is a foregone conclusion.
**Spoilers for *The Great British Baking Show*, through Episode 8 “Desserts Week,” now streaming on Netflix**
23-year-old medical student Jasmine Mitchell entered the tent as this season’s youngest baker and is now poised to win it all. To date, she has taken home half the Star Baker honors of the whole season and has never once been in danger of elimination. Week after week, judges Paul Hollywood and Prue Leith have heaped praises upon her in a way that’s getting almost rote.
Her domination of the field is so supreme that everyone—from Noel Fielding to her fellow remaining bakers—has begun to sarcastically heckle her non-stop excellence. Fielding has teased Jasmine on the rare occasion she made a tiny mistake, joking, “I thought you were supposed to be good!”, while Aaron Mountford-Myles vowed he would attack next week’s Semi-Finals with renewed gusto. “Jasmine’s not having that Star Baker,” he said.
What makes Jasmine so unstoppable seems to be her straightforward baking philosophy. Rather than attempt to convert Paul and Prue to exotic flavors, she tends to stick with the classics. When other bakers ambitiously attempt to pull off miracles in the tent, Jasmine aims to keep her creations neat. She herself has admitted in confessionals that her strategy—to execute simplicity on the best level possible—appears to be quite the winning combination.
So, can anyone else beat Jasmine? Or should she start making room in her kitchen for that iconic cake stand?
Let’s look at the remaining competition. Tom Arden, Aaron Mountford-Myles, and Toby Littlewood have each won Star Baker once, with Toby’s win coming just last week. Tom burst out of the gate as one of the strongest bakers in the field but has struggled recently with consistency. Aaron has had perhaps the least consistent season of the group, often slipping into danger zones after moments of success. Nevertheless, he was in contention for Star Baker this week, which shouldn’t be overlooked.
Toby started the season near the bottom of the heap, almost being eliminated right out of the gate. However, he’s begun to rise in the ranks in recent weeks—meaning he’s peaking at the perfect time.
Usually, I would say any of these three have what it takes to eventually beat Jasmine in the final. All they need is to survive Patisserie Week and pull out all the stops in the finale.
The problem, however, is that Paul and Prue often look back over the whole season when making their final decision. Jasmine’s consistency probably will secure her that final win—unless it backfires on her first.
Jasmine’s strategy so far has been to play it safe. Her simple, elegantly executed approach has been successful for weeks now. What could go wrong?
Well, Paul and Prue began pointing out this week that she does seem hooked on the same flavor combinations. They could demand more risk and innovation going forward.
Furthermore, we only need to look back at recent seasons of *The Great British Baking Show* to see a certain trend. In 2023, Tasha Stones—the franchise’s first deaf contestant—was heading into the semi-finals in pole position only to be eliminated after “Patisserie Week.” Similarly, last year’s wunderkind Dylan Bachelet seemed like the favorite to win the whole thing but fell short in the finale.
Jasmine’s rise could be edited by production to precipitate her eventual fall.
Nevertheless, unless something truly wild happens during next week’s semi-finals, Jasmine Mitchell seems like the clear frontrunner to win the 2025 season of *The Great British Baking Show*. She is by far the most consistent, most celebrated, and most clear-headed baker left in the tent.
Will that be what ensures her ultimate victory—or presages her dramatic doom? Only time will tell.
https://decider.com/2025/10/25/who-will-win-the-great-british-baking-show-2025-pitting-jasmines-chances-vs-the-boys/