Republican policy analyst and commentator Steve Hilton is leading the latest poll in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race, signaling widespread voter dissatisfaction with the state’s Democratic leadership.
The Emerson College poll shows Hilton narrowly ahead of all major Democratic contenders, including former Representative Katie Porter. Although his lead falls within the survey’s 3% margin of error, this marks a rare moment in which a Republican candidate tops a statewide poll in California.
Hilton, known for his conservative commentary and criticism of the state’s high taxes, cost of living, and public safety issues, has emerged as the early front-runner in a crowded field.
### Voter Sentiment Amid Democratic Divisions
The poll arrives amid deep divisions within California’s Democratic Party and declining enthusiasm among voters after years of one-party rule. Notably, 57% of California voters support Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposal to alter congressional district maps—a move critics say would dismantle the state’s constitutionally mandated independent redistricting commission.
Newsom’s plan would give the state legislature more power over how congressional lines are drawn—a change opponents argue could entrench Democratic control for decades.
### Approval Ratings and Democratic Challenges
While the poll reflects California’s continued liberal tilt on many policy issues, it also reveals growing frustration with Democratic leadership. Newsom’s approval rating stands at 48%, his highest mark in the past year, yet it remains below 50% amid concerns about homelessness, crime, and the state’s declining population.
Hilton’s lead coincides with fractured Democratic support among several lesser-known candidates. Porter, who represented Orange County in Congress until early 2025, is currently the only Democrat polling in double digits. However, her campaign has struggled to recover from a recent controversy involving a heated exchange with a CBS interviewer that drew widespread backlash.
Other Democrats included in the Emerson poll have failed to gain significant traction.
### Potential Democratic Contenders
Political analysts suggest the weak early showing from the Democratic field could prompt additional candidates to enter the race. Among those mentioned is Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), who has maintained a low national profile since being appointed to fill Kamala Harris’s former Senate seat in 2021.
Padilla’s potential candidacy is seen by some party strategists as an effort to consolidate Democratic voters behind a higher-profile figure capable of challenging Hilton’s momentum.
### Party Support and Shifting Attitudes
The poll’s findings also show that overall Democratic support still outweighs Republican support when all candidates are grouped by party affiliation, reflecting the state’s longstanding political demographics.
However, Hilton’s early lead highlights shifting attitudes among independents and moderate Democrats, particularly in regions outside the coastal metropolitan areas.
### Key Voter Concerns
Emerson College surveyed a cross-section of registered voters statewide, revealing that economic concerns remain dominant. Respondents cited housing affordability, taxes, and public safety as the most important issues ahead of the 2026 election.
### About Steve Hilton
Originally from the United Kingdom, Hilton previously served as an adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron before moving to the United States, where he became an American citizen. He has since worked as a political analyst and commentator, focusing on state-level policy reforms and government accountability.
If Hilton maintains his position in the coming months, it would mark one of the strongest showings by a Republican gubernatorial candidate in California in more than a decade. The last Republican to serve as governor was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office in 2011.
The California governor’s race is scheduled for November 2026.
https://www.lifezette.com/2025/10/shock-poll-gop-candidate-leads-california-gov-race-as-dem-party-throws-itself-off-a-cliff-watch/