In Japan, Sanae Takaichi is known as the “iron lady,” a not-so-subtle comparison to Britain’s Margaret Thatcher—the staunch American ally who helped Ronald Reagan defeat the Soviet Union in Cold War I. Recently appointed as Japan’s prime minister, Takaichi shares many parallels with Thatcher. Like Thatcher, she rose to power from humble origins and is a conservative known for supporting a “hawkish” foreign policy and a stronger military.
In the late 1970s, following America’s defeat in Vietnam and the disastrous presidency of Jimmy Carter, Thatcher partnered with Ronald Reagan to reverse the “correlation of forces” that seemed to be shifting in favor of the Soviet Union during Cold War I. Today, there are indications that Takaichi may partner with Donald Trump, in the aftermath of what some consider a Carter-like Biden presidency, to confront the growing geopolitical challenge posed by China in Cold War II.
During President Trump’s recent trip to Asia, he praised Japan’s first female prime minister, stating that she “will be one of the great prime ministers.” Takaichi pledged to significantly increase Japan’s defense spending, signed an agreement on critical minerals and rare earths, and lauded potential new investments by Japanese companies in the United States. She also praised Trump’s efforts to foster peace around the world.
Prime Minister Takaichi is a protégé of Shinzo Abe, Japan’s former prime minister and a key Trump ally during his first term. Abe stepped down in 2020 and was tragically assassinated in 2022 while giving a speech in support of a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidate for Japan’s upper house of parliament.
There is notable geopolitical symmetry in the U.S. alliances with Britain and Japan. Thatcher’s Britain, an island off the Atlantic coast of Eurasia, was the most important maritime ally of the United States during Cold War I. Similarly, Takaichi’s Japan, an island off the Pacific coast of Eurasia, serves as the most important maritime ally of the United States in Cold War II.
Just as the Atlantic Ocean and Western Europe were centers of gravity in Cold War I, the Pacific Ocean and East and South Asia are the focal points in Cold War II. In the 1980s, Reagan and Thatcher achieved victory over the Soviet Union while avoiding World War III. Both leaders recognized that Mikhail Gorbachev was a different kind of Soviet leader who, in Thatcher’s words, they could “do business with.” Their policies ultimately led to a peaceful resolution of Cold War I.
Trump and Takaichi understand that we are in Cold War II with China. However, they also know that a kinetic war with China would be disastrous for both sides. Both leaders are pursuing a strategy of speaking softly while wielding a big stick—a strong military and a reinforced alliance.
President Xi Jinping is no Gorbachev, and although China has weaknesses that can and should be exploited, it is not as vulnerable to collapse as the Soviet Union was in the mid-to-late 1980s. Cold War II is unlikely to end while Xi remains in power. Xi has been systematically purging China’s military leaders and Communist Party officials, creating debate among Sinologists about whether these purges signify strength or weakness.
Regardless, it is critical that China faces a strong U.S.-led Indo-Pacific alliance, with U.S.-Japanese relations serving as the cornerstone. As Trump and Takaichi have suggested, this moment could mark a “Golden Age” of U.S.-Japan relations.
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https://spectator.org/reagan-thatcher-trump-takaichi-and-cold-war-ii/