Navy heads to Memphis on Thanksgiving night with a genuine shot to stay in the American Athletic Conference title hunt. The Mids sit at 8-2 overall and 6-1 in the conference, part of a logjam at the top, while Memphis comes in 8-3 and dangerous at home. It’s Navy’s first Thanksgiving game since 1898, a national ESPN window, and a chance to move one step closer to back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in program history. When Navy Has the Ball From a Navy point of view, this one starts where it always should: on the ground. The Mids lead the nation in rushing and in yards per carry, and senior quarterback Blake Horvath has turned the offense into a weekly headache for defensive coordinators. He’s over 100 rushing yards per game, has 13 rushing touchdowns, and is efficient enough in the passing game to hit big plays downfield, especially to Eli Heidenreich. The key is keeping Navy’s offensive line clean and on schedule against a Memphis front that’s active and disruptive, particularly at linebacker. If Horvath and backs like Alex Tecza are getting to the second level without a lot of contact, Navy will control tempo and clock. When Navy Is on Defense Defensively, Navy is walking into one of the better all-around offenses it has seen since Notre Dame. Memphis scores in the mid-30s per game, throws it well, runs it well, and almost never comes up empty in the red zone. Quarterback Brendon Lewis is a true dual threat, and running back Sutton Smith can score from anywhere on the field. The Tigers also have size and production at receiver, so the Navy secondary is going to get tested. For the Mids, the formula is familiar: win first down, limit explosive plays, and make Memphis drive the length of the field. A couple of timely stops or takeaways will matter a lot more than holding the Tigers to some pretty number on the stat sheet. X-Factors to Watch This game may turn on the little things Navy usually prides itself on: ball security, special teams, and red-zone execution. Memphis has been very good at taking care of the football, and Navy can’t afford to give them short fields or momentum with turnovers. On the flip side, a big return, a blocked kick, or simply forcing Memphis to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns may be enough to tilt a tight game. Emotionally, Navy comes in off a huge win over USF and has a Heisman-caliber quarterback leading the way. If the Mids handle the environment and the holiday stage, they like their chances. Prediction On paper, this looks like a one-score game with plenty of offense. Navy’s ability to run the ball, shorten the game, and hit selective deep shots should keep Memphis from turning it into a full-blown track meet. The Mids won’t shut the Tigers down, but they don’t have to-they just need a couple more stops than Memphis gets against Horvath and company. Prediction: Navy 34, Memphis 31. What’s Next for Navy If Navy wins, the Mids stay firmly in the mix for a spot in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game on Friday, December 5, with tiebreakers and other results deciding who lines up on the other sideline and where. No matter how the league race shakes out, the regular season will finish the way it always does: with Army-Navy on December 13 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, where the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, bragging rights, and possibly a historic back-to-back 10-win statement will all be on the table.
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